NSR’s Flat Panel Satellite Antennas, 5th Edition (FPA5) report, now released, forecasts cumulative revenue from flat panel satellite antenna sales to reach $12 billion by 2029. Mobile applications, particularly government and commercial aviation, drive the opportunity, at 98% of the market value over the next decade. Fixed applications, mainly consumer and enterprise broadband, drive volume with over 582,000 FPAs to be shipped in the same timeframe. “Commercial Aviation and Maritime are being hit very hard this year,” states Dallas Kasaboski, Senior Analyst and report author. “With over 70% of every airline’s fleet currently grounded, the number of commercial aero shipped units dropped by 55% so far in 2020; however, this is an equipment market, with long lead times. Due to the necessity of a low-profile antenna, and the priority of government customers, ultimately the market will see less of an impact in 2021 and beyond.” NSR’s FPA5 notes that commercial and government aeronautical, along with commercial land-mobile, demonstrate strong presence of FPAs, exceeding 77% of their respective markets by 2029.
However, in most markets, FPAs will not be competitive with opportunity only reaching 3% of all satcom units, with a sizable challenge in broadband markets. “The overall broadband market outlook has been reduced significantly due to the exits of OneWeb and LeoSat. FPAs also have a long road to becoming cheap and reliable enough to work in a mass market. Manufacturers are pivoting to scale up, and drop costs, but parabolic equipment will be too competitive in serving GEO-HTS, resulting in low overall market penetration,” adds Kasaboski. However, Non-GEO HTS capacity, including potential constellations from SES, Telesat, Amazon, SpaceX, and ViaSat, is where FPAs will dominate, especially with connected vehicle and consumer broadband markets. Flat panel equipment has long been the purview of premium markets, installed only where necessary. This trend is expected to continue, but FPAs are becoming a necessity in more markets. Low-profiles, fast-tracking and scanning, as well as terminals capable of delivering multiple capacity types from multiple orbits, are factors growing in importance as many customers and end-users seek to “future-proof” and deliver next-generation solutions. However, reaching a wider market will require almost an order of magnitude increase in scale and decrease in price to enter certain markets and remain competitive.